Overcoming the “Wall of Worry”


Technical Outlook

Equity markets continue their impressive recent run but resistance is closely overhead for many markets and volume continues to be lackluster.  But as they say bull markets do need their “wall of worry” and sentiment levels are still somewhat cautious implying potential room to run.  US markets still acting much better than most Int’l markets although some Pacific Rim countries are also performing strongly – Thailand and the Philippines in particular.

Markets

Stocks moved higher as good earnings reports prevailed over investors’ persistent worries about the European debt crisis, as well as some data suggesting a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery. Markets started the week on a down note in reaction to a steep drop in European stocks, apparently prompted by the dissolution of the Dutch government over the weekend in response to dissatisfaction with austerity measures. Investors also seemed concerned about the strong showing of French socialist candidate François Hollande in the first round of the country’s presidential voting. Some worry that Hollande will not cooperate with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in pushing through fiscal consolidation in the Eurozone.

U.S. stocks regained their footing as the week progressed, thanks in large part to first-quarter earnings that have generally exceeded analysts’ expectations-roughly three-fourths of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have topped estimates, according to Thomson Reuters. Strong showings in the technology sector provided a particular boost to the Nasdaq Composite Index.

The economic backdrop for corporate profits was mixed, however. Weekly jobless claims remained somewhat elevated for the second week in a row, suggesting that the sharp drop in claims earlier in the year may be ending. On Friday, the government announced that the U.S. economy had grown at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2012 versus 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2011. The headline number masked stronger underlying data, however, according to T.Rowe Price economists. “Core” growth measures, such as consumer spending and housing construction, enjoyed solid growth, while government spending fell sharply. Continued job and income growth remain critical for a self-sustained recovery, particularly given the headwind of fiscal policy uncertainty beyond 2012. (T. Rowe, 4/30/2012)

Is slow economic growth weighing on sentiment?


Markets
Stocks were modestly lower overall for the week, breaking a stretch of five weekly gains for the broad S&P 500 Index; the technology-oriented Nasdaq managed a small gain. Concerns over slowing economic growth outside the U.S. appeared to be the largest factor weighing on sentiment. A purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China declined to 48.1 in March from 49.6 the previous month, indicating a modest contraction in what is arguably the world’s most important manufacturing sector. Similarly, a Eurozone PMI declined to 48.7 from 49.3, confounding consensus hopes for a slight increase. U.S. economic data remained mostly positive, however.

Weekly jobless claims reached a new multiyear low, suggesting a firm footing for further gains in the labor market. Housing market data were mixed but perhaps better than headline numbers suggested. New home sales declined and construction of single family homes fell nearly 10% in February, but that was only a partial consolidation of gains over the previous few months.

More encouragingly, homebuilder confidence remained at its highest level in nearly five years, multifamily construction rose strongly, and permits for new construction hit their best level since the onslaught of the financial crisis. The week’s company-specific news was dominated by Apple’s announcement of its first dividend, alongside a stock repurchase program. After piercing the $600 per share level, Apple’s stock fell back to end the week roughly where it started. A disappointing global growth outlook from shipping giant FedEx weighed on markets and added to worries about a slowdown in China and Europe. (T. Rowe, 3/23/2012)

Source: Niemann Analytics, 3/23/2012.

Technical Outlook
Charts tell a story that favors further upside in this rally. Markets are basically neutral in the short term but money flow continues to find its way into equities, especially the developed markets led by the U.S. but also Japan and Europe looking good. Int’l emerging markets have numerous specific countries (or regions) that look strong as well such as THD (Thailand) and EWM (Malaysia) and EWW (Mexico). China (FXI) is lagging on a technical basis as of late.

U.S. Treasuries have had a countertrend up rally in the short term that should be running into some resistance soon if the stronger intermediate downtrend is going to resume, while the U.S. dollar looks to be resuming its action to the downside as well.

This could be an interesting week as we finish out the first quarter in 2012.

Market and Allocation Update for February 24, 2012


Niemann Capital Management Market and Allocation Update for February 24, 2012With a gain of almost 1% last week, the stock market continues to impress investors with its persistent strength. Up six of the last seven weeks, the S&P 500 finished last week at a 10 month high and just shy of a four year peak. The Dow is at its highest levels since May of 2008 and briefly pierced 13,000 before falling below it on Tuesday. The NASDAQ is currently trading at levels not seen since December of 2000! With the major indices trading at or near multi-year highs, the ride has been enjoyable so far in 2012. We are happy to participate in a more favorable investing environment but as always, we monitor market conditions closely as several sectors look overbought, underlying momentum appears to be slowing a bit and investor sentiment seems to be growing frothy.

As many of you are probably aware, this year’s advance has occurred with very little volatility. Compared to the last half of 2011 where 1% swings were considered normal, the market has been relatively calm and more “normal” acting with nary a 1% drop in over 7 weeks. In addition, correlations among stock prices have dropped dramatically suggesting a market in which stocks are moving more on company fundamentals than on global macroeconomic headlines. A wide variety of sectors and industry groups are performing well and as a result, occupy the top of our rankings. Broad market leadership is usually indicative of a healthy market.

As of February 1st, all of our managed strategies have been aligned with our newly enhanced models. As part of our process, we continue to pay close attention to how stocks are trending and where money is flowing in to the market as expressed by the percentage of stocks in an uptrend. As the percentage of stocks in an uptrend increases, we add exposure to various asset classes in response to the improvement. As of now, the technical picture remains solid with more room to the upside in the intermediate term. Also of note, while they performed poorly in 2011, international and emerging markets have since repaired themselves and now look to be on somewhat even footing in terms of relative strength and outlook which bodes well for Equity Plus, Dynamic International and Risk Managed Global Emerging Market Sectors (GEMS) should their recent strength continue.

Read Niemann’s entire update and see current strategy allocations – Market and Allocation Update for February 24, 2012

Market and Allocation Updates Archive available here: Niemann Capital Management – Market and Allocation Update Archive

Niemann Capital Management Launches New Global Emerging Market Sectors Strategy


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

NIEMANN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LAUNCHES
NEW GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET SECTORS STRATEGY

– Emerging Markets Risk Management Solution For Investors –

Nimann Capital Management Emerging Markets Risk Management Solution For InvestorsScotts Valley, CA – February 14, 2012 – Niemann Capital Management (NCM), an innovative tactical allocation management firm, today announced its new strategy, Niemann Risk Managed GEMS (Global Emerging Market Sectors), representing an emerging markets risk management solution for investors. This new strategy was created to identify and focus portfolio assets into those Global Emerging Market Sectors expected to perform the best in the current market cycle while also using strict risk controls seeking to minimize the downside.

Sector rotation is an increasingly popular strategy for investing in the U.S., as identifying the sectors likely to outperform the market can often be more critical to overall performance than choosing individual stocks and bonds.

Niemann Capital’s emerging markets tactical asset allocation strategy will utilize the EGShares’ GEMS funds, which are composed of the leading emerging markets companies in each of 10 industries defined by the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB). The funds, which were launched in June 2011, are all based on the Dow Jones Emerging Markets Sector Titans Indexes.

“We are pleased to offer investors a new approach to investing in emerging markets as well as launching our new strategic alliance with EGShares,” stated Charles Halliday, Chief Strategy Officer for Niemann Capital Management.

Robert C. Holderith, EGA’s Founder and President expressed, “GEMS (Global Emerging Markets Sector ETFs) were designed for investors who want sector based exposure in emerging markets. EGA is very pleased to have Niemann Capital Management employ our GEMS ETFs in their tactical sector strategy.”

Niemann Risk Managed GEMS is offered on the Envestnet wealth management platform as a convenient way for advisors to access this new investment vehicle for their clients, as well as the entire suite of Niemann products ranging from conservative to aggressive strategies.

About Emerging Global Advisors/EGShares
Based in New York City, Emerging Global Advisors LLC is an independent investment advisory firm and the sub-advisor to the EGShares family of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The EGShares product offerings are designed to provide investment exposures that allow more accurate targeting of important emerging market opportunities. More information on the firm and its investment products can be found at www.egshares.com.

About Niemann Capital Management
Founded in 1991, Niemann Capital Management (NCM) is an innovative investment management firm distinguished by its tactical asset allocation methodology. The firm’s proprietary, disciplined process is based on continuous daily analysis of current market conditions, designed to seek the greatest potential return with the least possible risk for investors. (http://www.ncm.net/first_investor.php)

With preservation of capital as the cornerstone of its philosophy, NCM offers a range of conservative, moderate and aggressive Managed Account strategies that utilize mutual funds and exchange traded funds. NCM is based in Scotts Valley, California.

For more information about Niemann Capital Management’s complete suite of investment products, visit the firm’s website at www.ncm.net or contact a sales representative toll-free at 877.643.6222.

Media Contact:
Craig Parsons
Parsons Communications
310.472.7632 or 310.200.4310

Video: Big Picture Market Trends and the New Bull


The secular bear of the last several years has left investors looking for the new bull trend and a sign of hope. Don Niemann, Niemann Capital Management’s Chief Investment Officer, explains the Big Picture trends of the past and the new bull that may come from the emerging markets sector.

Are you ready for Emerging Markets investing?


As a trend following manager, it’s safe to say the past year was challenging from a relative strength and momentum perspective. As trends began to emerge, we rotated toward them. Several times they quickly broke down forcing us to sell, producing the whip-saw effect we experienced in 2011.

It’s been one of the strongest starts to a year in quite a long time. But as we’ve seen time and time again, hope can fade quickly as worries about the global macro picture wax and wane.

The AAA downgrade of French debt and its implications for the firepower of the EFSF is the latest in several actions signaling less confidence in the credit worthiness of some developed economies.

For the Portfolio Team at Niemann, we see several catalysts that could be market moving in 2012.

One catalyst we’re watching closely is emerging markets. Focus has shifted to emerging economies because they will most likely provide the best opportunities for growth as developed economies face uncertainty due to deleveraging and austerity measures. While it’s likely the European debt crisis will have an impact on the growth rates in emerging market countries, it does not mean no growth at all for those economies.

Investing in emerging markets with added downside protection (to dampen volatility) will provide a new way for trepid investors to gain access to developing economies. While investors and advisors are eager for its positive trend to materialize, risk management is still crucial in the meantime. Niemann provides access to emerging market opportunities in a risk managed fashion using the same proven approach we’ve used for the last 20 years we’ve been tactically investing for our clients.

Are you ready for emerging markets investing?

To learn more, contact Niemann at 877.643.6222 or sales@ncm [dot] net.