Thoughts on the Recent Rally


Niemann Capital Management - Thoughts on the Recent Stock Market RallyAnalytics framework now pushing the long side (instead of the short side). We’ve endured a cyclical bear (late July through early October) and a cyclical bull (the market has rocketed 20% + in 3 weeks) in a span of 3 months. For the market to push up through the upper end of its range like it did last week, takes some of the downside risk off the table.

What changed?

  • EU creates a trillion to buy their defaulting debt
  • US creates another trillion for its defaulting MBS
  • Brazil is cutting rates (with inflation in double digits and rising)
  • China appears to be landing softly

While it’s hard to watch a 20% advance in 3 weeks where 14 of 19 days were up, the market evidently likes the rumors out of Europe (there are still a lot of details to be hashed out), the earnings and guidance picture among U.S companies and the improving economic numbers that have come out recently.

Some other interesting tidbits:

  • Fund managers won’t be able to catch up with 2% yields on 10 year Treasuries so the reallocation out of bonds into equities could be substantial.
  • We’ve seen a nice surge among the industrial metals but it seems more like the market pulling them along vs. economy pushing them higher.
  • Worst off the lows have been low beta defensive. These remain highly ranked though because low beta combined with extreme volatility is elevating scores.
  • High beta is up 40% from the lows yet they remain double digits off their July 7th highs. The fact that many remain UNDER their 200 mean is a testament to how oversold the market was on October 3rd.
  • Low beta is up less than a third as much but are near and even above their July 7th highs.

Remember, beta is the measurement of the volatility within a stock, mutual fund or portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Low beta means less volatility vs. high beta which means increased volatility.

Investor’s perception is that it’s not the end of the world yet. Again, the risk of the range resolving itself to the downside is pretty much out of the equation at this point. With that being said, we are heading into supply at around 1300, the market is overbought and so consolidation should not be unexpected. But, things have improved enough to push us back in the market. This is where further questions are likely to arise.