Don Niemann

About Don Niemann

Don serves as the driving force behind Niemann Capital Management's growth and success as the Founder and Chief Investment Officer. Don began his career in 1983 as a registered representative at Prudential Bache and moved on to become the Vice President of Investments at E.F. Hutton and Bateman Eichler Securities. In these positions, Don gained extensive experience designing methodologies and managing securities, mutual funds, variable annuity products and international funds in a diverse marketplace. In 1991, Don synthesized his professional expertise, resulting in a new venture - Niemann Capital Management, Inc. Don retains a tactical control of all of Niemann's investment choices through dedicated research and analysis.

Risk Off?

Yields on Spanish and Italian sovereigns are on the rise again and equity markets around the world have come under selling pressure. Are stock markets headed for contagion redux or is this a welcome opportunity to buy into US stocks?

In the face of a lost regional election to the socialists/unions, newly elected Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is walking back his country’s quid pro quo to shave its national deficit in return for more dough from the EU. Italy’s top technocrat Mario Monte is in the same boat as his country’s powerful unions press him to water down employment reform (no one hires because once hired one can’t be fired!) . Perhaps both men have taken a lesson from Wisconsin’s Scott Walker as to the downside of cutting into union largess. Nonetheless their backpedaling has interest rates and default swaps on the rise in those countries along with uncomfortable memories of ‘RISK OFF’. But for investors there lies a distinction with a difference.

Boil down continental solutions from Athens to Brussels and one finds a goal of austerity (because the money ran out) without a credible path to growth. It’s obvious why. Distressed pols of all stripes instinctively reach for the low lying fruit:  in this case an ephemeral attempt to turn off the money rather than confront the very painful challenge of structural reform and the potential of early retirement. Sound familiar? The same two step is playing here in Washington at the federal level.

The difference is thankfully we have fifty different state governments, each with their own agenda whether the sovereign likes it or not. Feds close down drilling in the gulf – we lose 100,000 jobs. Pennsylvania and North Dakota decide to drill – we gain 100,000 jobs (and more). This is the beauty of our federalist system! What this means for stocks can be summed up in a tale of three stock markets.

Spanish shares have been in a ripping bear market for over 2 years despite the short selling of banks being ruled verbotin. The Madrid Stock Exchange Index (MADX) is a stone’s throw from its desperation low of 2009 and Italian shares are close behind. Seeing no respite Investors continue to flee the inevitable destruction of wealth. Contrast with our markets which have rallied back to their 2011 highs.

In the long run policy is everything. US shares are benefiting by some states willingness to challenge the federal largess – whether on health, energy, or the right to build an airplane where you want to. One may be tempted to sell Spain and Italy while buying the U.S.

Where did the volatility go? (Portfolio Manager Quarter Commentary)

Niemann Capital Management 2012 Q1 Quarterly CommentaryCompared to the second half of 2011, the first quarter of 2012 was nothing like the months that preceded it. After a record number of all or nothing days last year (where 90% of securities traded up or down in the same direction), the volatility switch this year seemed like it had been turned off. Stock picking became important again as correlation levels between asset classes dropped to more normalized levels.

Trading on company fundamentals instead of the latest news headline, it became easier to differentiate winning securities from losing ones.

And where did the volatility go?

Instead of 100 point swings nearly every other day (at least that’s what it seemed like!) we experienced one 1% decline since the year began. Instead of sharp drops and quick reversals, we’ve seen relative calm amid a steadily rising market.

Market conditions normalized in the first quarter of 2012. Domestic markets exhibited positive gains. Volatility dropped significantly as did correlation levels between asset classes and sectors. International and Emerging Markets rebounded substantially after getting crushed the last half of 2011. U.S. Treasuries saw their yields spike to the upside sending prices steeply lower across the curve in mid- March before retracing a bit near quarter end. High Yield bonds bucked the trend in Treasuries as did Emerging Market debt.

As a tactical manager who monitors global markets on a daily basis, we’re often times asked for our views on the various asset classes we study. The results of our analysis are provided in the quarterly commentary in the Asset Class Breakdown section. Each asset class is broken down into sub categories and then evaluated according to our view of their general health over the intermediate term.

Access the complete commentary and see Niemann’s NEW Asset Class Breakdown for the quarter here: Niemann Portfolio Manager Commentary, First Quarter 2012

Visit the commentary archives here: Niemann Portfolio Manager Commentary Archives

Has Risk really fallen this much?

This morning one of the more popular measures of risk, called VIX, ticked to its lowest level since June 2007. It’s generally a good thing when VIX is in decline since the behavior tends to accompany the general perception that risk is receding which in turn contributes to higher equity prices. But the absolute level of this measure is what has our attention in here.

With a print of 13.99, VIX is at its lowest point since before the great bear market began. That would be back in the days when politicians and central bankers had to keep their meddling (aka policy) somewhat tethered to economic reality or at least the appearance of such.

Do investors really think that’s the case today?

Interesting to note is that the fall of VIX since New Year’s Day has been accompanied by an explosion of open interest (OI) in VIX futures to the highest level ever. Large specs (speculators) increased long positions (which is a bet on INCREASING volatility/risk) almost 8 fold over this period bringing “net spec long” (large + small spec longs divided by spec open interest) into relative balance at 48%. Over the past 4 weeks small longs have fallen while large almost doubled!

 Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, March 2012.

Perhaps expanding OI in VIX futures is simply an artifact of a wider acceptance of this instrument (along with options on it) as a hedge against stock volatility.

But with the overall perception of risk having fallen so much, it seems prudent to keep a wary eye on these market participants.

Reluctant Bull

Stocks continue to levitate through trading sessions that have become unnervingly quiet. Perhaps they simply suffer by comparison. A couple of months ago US markets were swinging wildly in both directions with daily flow either all in or all out. Fast forward a few weeks to find we haven’t witnessed a 9 to 1 volume day so far this year. What has changed?

Reluctant Bull

Source: Niemann Analytics. 2/28/2012.

Fear of a double dip recession appears firmly in the rear view mirror. And few seem to care any longer about the outcome in Europe – though we’ll get another data point on that later this week. All in all markets are shrugging off good news with the bad, neither having much impact. As we write the S&P 500 (at 1371.41) is checking into last year’s high of 1370.58!

Which provides a good opportunity to throw a couple of stones the markets way. If the economy truly has turned the corner why are 10 year treasuries bumping along at 2%? (after taxes and inflation these investors are guaranteed a loss). And where are those great measures of economic activity, the transports? Today’s trade finds them over 8% below their 2011 highs. Questions this reluctant bull continues to contemplate.

A Better Approach to Managing Risk (Portfolio Manager Quarterly Commentary)

2011 was characterized by violent swings and sharp reversals – for that reason it’s no wonder a majority of money managers (77% as of November 30, 2011 according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch) underperformed the S&P 500. A once in a lifetime financial collapse across all asset classes followed by acute uncertainty and a perceived dependence on governments to save the day have created an environment where markets are swinging up and down by large amounts based largely on the latest headline.

A tactical manager focused on the intermediate trend, like us, has been hurt by these violent swings and quick reversals since the moves down were big enough to put us in risk management mode, while the swings up were not big enough to adequately cash in on once the trend confirmed. In other words, we were getting whipped in and out of the market and our positions, paying a price with each market swing. It felt like death by a thousand tiny cuts.

After a year and a half of ongoing, rigorous testing and analysis, we have some new tools in our box which happily make a positive difference! And along the way we witnessed a few Eureka moments (it works!) like the creation of our new allocation manager. But it was identifying the one key challenge – the tactical trading driven by risk management – that was the most satisfying and potentially rewarding.

Starting immediately, we will be including other metrics centered on volatility to address today’s market environment better. By setting our theoretical “stop losses” (how much we are willing to lose on any one position) around the range in which something is trading (instead of around its moving average for example), we will no longer be repeatedly forced in and out of the market and our positions as we have the last two years.

Additionally, in our Equity Plus strategy, you will see a diminished use of inverse funds. Inverse funds have obvious value in severe bear markets but in the erratic ranges we’ve been trading in, we have not been satisfied with the role they’ve played in our portfolios. Until we are satisfied, they will play a very limited role in our portfolios going forward.

Read the complete review here: Niemann Portfolio Manager Commentary, Fourth Quarter 2011

Visit the commentary archives here: Niemann Portfolio Manager Commentary Archives