A Better Approach to Managing Risk (Portfolio Manager Quarterly Commentary)


2011 was characterized by violent swings and sharp reversals – for that reason it’s no wonder a majority of money managers (77% as of November 30, 2011 according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch) underperformed the S&P 500. A once in a lifetime financial collapse across all asset classes followed by acute uncertainty and a perceived dependence on governments to save the day have created an environment where markets are swinging up and down by large amounts based largely on the latest headline.

A tactical manager focused on the intermediate trend, like us, has been hurt by these violent swings and quick reversals since the moves down were big enough to put us in risk management mode, while the swings up were not big enough to adequately cash in on once the trend confirmed. In other words, we were getting whipped in and out of the market and our positions, paying a price with each market swing. It felt like death by a thousand tiny cuts.

After a year and a half of ongoing, rigorous testing and analysis, we have some new tools in our box which happily make a positive difference! And along the way we witnessed a few Eureka moments (it works!) like the creation of our new allocation manager. But it was identifying the one key challenge – the tactical trading driven by risk management – that was the most satisfying and potentially rewarding.

Starting immediately, we will be including other metrics centered on volatility to address today’s market environment better. By setting our theoretical “stop losses” (how much we are willing to lose on any one position) around the range in which something is trading (instead of around its moving average for example), we will no longer be repeatedly forced in and out of the market and our positions as we have the last two years.

Additionally, in our Equity Plus strategy, you will see a diminished use of inverse funds. Inverse funds have obvious value in severe bear markets but in the erratic ranges we’ve been trading in, we have not been satisfied with the role they’ve played in our portfolios. Until we are satisfied, they will play a very limited role in our portfolios going forward.

Read the complete review here: Niemann Portfolio Manager Commentary, Fourth Quarter 2011

Visit the commentary archives here: Niemann Portfolio Manager Commentary Archives

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