A Jump Start Following the Flat Finish


The end to 2011 for the S&P 500 has been dubbed as a “pancake-flat finish” by some strategists. Many strategists predict continued volatility for at least the first half of 2012. While we are not in the game of predictions, the fundamentals we review on a daily basis tell us the unfinished business of 2011 may lead to continued unrest for the markets.
The overall technical picture of the stock market made big improvements both at home in the U.S as well as abroad over the last 2-3 weeks.

Volatility continues to wreak havoc as a couple markets jumped from below their 50-day moving averages to above their 200-day moving averages in one fell swoop. That doesn’t happen too often.

The U.S. market price structure is much better than the International market price structures at this time. All markets enjoyed a banner day as we kicked off the New Year on January 3rd. The S&P 500 ended the opening day with a gain of 1.55%.(source: Yahoo! Finance)

The Risk trade seems back on as equities rocketed higher in general and the recent leadership such as utilities lagged severely. U.S. treasuries and the dollar slumped significantly as of this writing.

The “pancake-flat finish” of 2011 is already behind us with the jump start to the New Year. The Euro crisis still continues to unfold and market volatility remains. Hope and optimism for a stronger finish in 2012 is the cautionary theme for the year in front of us.

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