A Look Back and the New Road Ahead in 2012


As we near the end of 2011, we can look back at a year fraught with market volatility, investment fear and lack of confidence in the markets. The contagion effect as a result of several investment whip saws from the media driven moves caused a ripple across all countries during the last year.

Investors pulled assets to the sidelines as they waited for a sign that it’s time to get back into the markets. The more likely sign will be when the surge in the market has already passed and we have made headway into a new bull. The question is “When will that happen?”

While behavioral finance is not new, CNBC provides a different look at investor sentiment after a year of increasingly negative news and the Euro Zone drama that has left investors jaded.

Markets May Play Jilted Lover in Euro Zone Drama

Our research shows the technical outlook continues to weaken and risk is on the rise as we draw closer to the Christmas holiday, especially overseas. U.S. markets are looking riskier as well. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar still remain strong at this point. The dollar recently broke to new highs for the year but has had a recent history of reversing after these breakouts. We’ll see if that continues to hold.

As risk becomes elevated, we will rotate assets from those areas of the market that continue to deteriorate and increase exposure to those areas of the market with relative strength in the New Year.

As we step into 2012, we don’t predict the moves coming, but will confirm the theme that long-term investing will continue to have short-term emotions. In the long-run, exposure to the market is potentially the best way to grow your retirement capital even as we move into an uncertain 2012.

Happy Holidays!

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